You might wonder: what do fire and weather have in common?  Well, weather plays a big part in wildfires – how they start and how they are fought.  Each year, wildfires threaten lives, structures, and vegetation across the country.  NOAA National Weather Service meteorologists play a vital role in the awareness and prevention of fire weather – from long-range outlooks to on-site forecasts.

Scott Curl, a forecast meteorologist at the Norman, Oklahoma Forecast Office, explains.

Scott Curl is a Weather Forecaster for the NOAA National Weather Service Norman, OK Forecast Office.

Curl:  “We look at the weather parameters that can set the stage for a large outbreak of wildfires:  temperature, relative humidity, and winds.  What are those doing?  If those 3 – or a combination of those – become extreme, we could have a situation where can have a lot of wildfires.”

So, how do wildfires begin?  Humans start the majority of them – either by accident or arson.  But weather is also a major culprit.  Lightning is especially dangerous in areas of a thunderstorm where no precipitation is falling.  These strikes are known as dry lightning.  Heavy winds have also been known to blow over power lines – causing sparks.

As early as a week in advance, the NOAA Storm Prediction Center, part of the National Weather Service, provides outlooks for areas where fires are possible.  As the days draw nearer, the National Weather Service may issue fire weather watches and red flag warnings if the high risk remains.

Forecasters use multiple tools to help monitor weather conditions.  Radar can show smoke plumes.  Hourly computer models give high resolution info about the temperature, relative humidity, wind, and precipitation fields.  Infrared satellite can display very high temperature sensitivities, also know as hot spots.  This data helps identify a wildfire’s location even in open country where there are no visible smoke plumes or people.

Wildfire outbreak near Noble, OK

Together, these tools help forecasters monitor changes in weather conditions, such as wind direction.

Curl: “Those kind of things need to be relayed to the firefighters so they can do a good job of putting out the fire and also for protection because at one point they may be on the side of the fire in a relatively safe zone but if a wind shift comes in, that safe zone may not be very safe anymore.”

Weather support is also present at the scene of the fire.  Incident meteorologists use remote equipment to provide on-site weather forecasts tailored to a specific outbreak.  This information helps fire management teams plan effectively and ensures fire crew safety.

The National Weather Service works closely with the fire-weather community, including the U.S Department of Agriculture, the National Park Service, and Fire Departments.

NEXRAD radar displays a smoke plume from Noble, OK wildfire.

Although it may not be the first thing that comes to mind when you think of the National Weather Service, fire weather awareness and prevention is an important part of the mission.  In fact, forecasters treat wildfires much like they would treat a severe thunderstorm.

Curl: “It is a severe event.  The weather is impacting that.  We also know that people and property are in its way.  Where is it going to go?  How is the weather going to react with the fire?  How are those weather changes going to impact not only the fire but the people we know who are out there trying to put that fire out?”

Thanks for listening to another podcast of… That Weather Show… brought to you by the NOAA Weather Partners.

Don Burgess, Research Scientist, CIMMS working with NSSL

In the springs of 1994 and 1995, scientists at the NOAA National Severe Storms Lab began searching for answers as to how tornadoes form. They gathered data in the field – meeting the storms head on. This was called VORTEX, or the Verification of the Origins of Rotation in Tornadoes Experiment. Don Burgess, a research scientist, working with the lab, reflects on his involvement with this project.

Burgess: “The first VORTEX was our big experiment – first time with mobile radars, lot more mobile instrumentation than ever before, mobile Mesonets instead of stationary Mesonet sites – to go out and study super cells in great detail.”

Mobile Mesonets from VORTEX '95

Traveling through parts of Texas, Oklahoma, and Kansas, meteorologists planned to target a single storm each day to gather data. For the first time ever, VORTEX successfully documented the entire life cycle of a tornado. Between May and June of 2009 and 2010, many meteorologists from across the country will again be heading out to study tornadoes. This project, named VORTEX2, will be take place in the Central Plains. Areas of focus include southern South Dakota, western Iowa, eastern Colorado, Nebraska, Kansas, the Texas panhandle and western Oklahoma. The VORTEX2 Operation Center will be at the National Weather Center in Norman, Oklahoma. This field project will not only have scientists from the NOAA National Severe Storms Lab, but will also include participants from about a dozen universities and non-profit organizations. VORTEX2 is an $11.9 million dollar program funded by the National Science Foundation and National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration. Meteorologists will be trying to understand why, when, and how tornadoes form.

Burgess: “VORTEX2 is this once-in-a-decade expenditure that we have had historically and will have again where we put a lot of effort into a detailed study. We really want to get an incremental increase in basic understanding. This is focused towards super cells. They are important b/c they spawn the worst and most significant tornadoes. Tornadoes do come from other systems besides super cells. They deserve study as well but the big ones and the bad ones come from super cells so we want to understand them first and tornado genesis. Although we’ve made progress, we still really don’t understand everything so this is an important field program that is upcoming.

NO-XP mobile radar vehicle

Mobile Mesonets

Numerous special vehicles will be used for VORTEX2. There will be at least ten mobile radars in the field. These are large trucks equipped with weather radars that can be driven anywhere around the storm or tornado. Nine mobile mesonets, which are cars with various weather instrumentation attached to their roofs, will help efficiently collect data. The project will also include four vehicles with the capability of launching weather balloons into various locations of a storm. This is crucial for fully understanding the atmosphere. This impressive fleet of storm vehicles will be hard to miss as they drive towards severe storms this spring. Lou Wicker, a research meteorologist, will be organizing the National Severe Storms Lab’s role in this program

Lou Wicker, Research Meteorolgist, N

Wicker: This is probably one of the largest field programs for severe storms in the last twenty years. We are looking at approximately eight or nine universities, NCAR, and probably up to eighty to one hundred people involved in this. An armada on the road of about 40 vehicles. National Weather Service forecasters are volunteering their time to help forecast. All sorts of individuals that are closely tied to the severe storm research community. We are very excited about that. We feel very lucky to do this and we’re hoping to push the envelope pretty far out there.

Tornado POD

Sticknet

There is also some cutting edge technology being used in the way of unmanned instrumentation. Some of these include Tornado PODs and Sticknets, which meteorologists will attempt to place as close to where they expect tornadoes to form as possible. These devices are able to measure wind speed and direction, record hail and precipitation, as well as measure other important atmospheric variables. Another interesting piece of equipment is the unmanned instrumented aerial system. This will be flown across outflow boundaries and beneath rotating thunderstorms to measure pressure, temperature, relative humidity, and wind speeds. All of this instrumentation together, with a variety of vehicles, should provide an amazing amount of storm data to investigate. VORTEX2 is the largest and most ambitious field project ever to collect data on tornadoes. It will involve nearly 100 scientists and students. The hope is that the data gathered will one day allow National Weather Service forecasters to understand, with plenty of lead time, which specific storms will produce tornadoes.

Imagine getting a warning with details such as when and where a tornado will touch down, how long it will last, and how intense it will be. These are the ambitious goals of VORTEX2.