Mesoscale upper-level winds derived from GOES water vapor imagery

A new program to extend the use of geostationary satellite data in the operational environment has kicked off this spring in the NOAA Hazardous Weather Testbed at the National Weather Center in Norman, Okla. The GOES-R PG will involve the operational forecast community in the assessment and development of techniques for the next generation GOES satellites (GOES-R).

The “GOES-R Proving Ground” (PG) is sponsored by the NESDIS GOES-R program office and will take place over the next several years at the NOAA Storm Prediction Center in collaboration with the NOAA National Severe Storms Lab and the NOAA National Weather Service Norman Forecast Office.

During the first year, the GOES-R PG expects to lay foundational relationships and develop test methods that will lead to optimal testing of suites of products in following years. Techniques to be tested include:

- short-term forecasting of developing thunderstorms based on observations of cloud top cooling and development of ice in cloud tops (Cooperative Institute of Meteorological Satellite Studies (CIMSS) at the University of Wisconsin-Madison)

- simulated observations expected to be available from the optical lightning mapper on the GOES-R satellites

- short-term forecasts of hail probabilities based on cloud top information and environmental conditions (CIRA/NESDIS)

Most of these products will also be available for evaluation by the Experimental Warning Program and VORTEX2 forecasters this spring.

Background: The GOES-R is scheduled for launch in 2016. The availability of GOES-R products pre-launch will demonstrate a portion of the full observing capability of the GOES-R system.

]]> http://www.norman.noaa.gov/2009/05/goes-r/feed/ 0 http://www.norman.noaa.gov/2009/02/nsww2009/ http://www.norman.noaa.gov/2009/02/nsww2009/#comments Thu, 12 Feb 2009 21:06:25 +0000 Keli Tarp http://www.norman.noaa.gov/?p=904 Emergency managers and media will exchange ideas with academia and federal government experts from the National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration at the ninth annual National Severe Weather Workshop March 5-7 at the Embassy Suites Hotel and Conference Center, 2501 Conference Drive, Norman, Okla.

Registration is underway for the three-day workshop, designed to enhance partnerships between severe weather forecasters and researchers, emergency managers, broadcast meteorologists, businesses, storm spotters and other weather enthusiasts. Participants will identify communities at risk, evaluate current and future tools for hazardous weather assessment, and discuss communication technologies and meteorological careers.

This year’s theme is “Dangerous Weather Ahead: Understanding and Communicating the Threats.” A Trade and Technology Expo composed of company displays and information kiosks will be held in conjunction with the workshop.

Banquet speakers Ann Dixson, District Magistrate Judge with the State of Kansas, and Bob Dixson, Greensburg Mayor, will speak about the Greensburg EF5 tornado of May 4, 2007. The two will share their experiences and discuss the community’s commitment to rebuilding.

The event is hosted by NOAA’s National Weather Service and Oceanic and Atmospheric Research, the Oklahoma Emergency Management Association and the Central Oklahoma Chapter of the American Meteorological Society / National Weather Association.

Workshop registration is being taken online at http://www.norman.noaa.gov/nsww2009. Standard three-day workshop registration is $120 until Feb. 22. Late workshop registration of $140 will be accepted online or at the door. One-day tickets are available for $50 until Feb. 22 and $55 after. Banquet tickets are available for $20 each until Feb. 22.

2008 NOAA Hollings interns in Norman (from left): Jace Bauer, John Cintineo, Derek Stratman, David Cook, Jim Kurdzo, Amanda Sheffield, Jason Hwang, Keli Tarp (NOAA Office of Communication). Not pictured: Sean Waugh.

Eight undergraduate students from around the U.S. are in Norman this summer working on research projects as part of the NOAA Hollings Scholars program. The prestigious program is designed to help encourage students to pursue a future career in atmospheric science research.

Researchers from the National Severe Storms Laboratory and Storm Prediction Center and the Cooperative Institute for Mesoscale Meteorological Studies volunteer their time to be paired with a student. Together the team chooses a project and the scientists guide them through the research process. The students formally present at the end of the summer. The experience is augmented by tours, field trips and lectures.

This years’ research topics are:

Environmental Conditions Associated with Severe Thunderstorms and Tornadoes in the United States – Jace Bauer, Purdue University, mentored by Harold Brooks, NSSL.

Investigating Severe Storms Attributes in NWS Tornado Warnings using WDSS-II Radar-Derived Products – John Cintineo, Cornell University, mentored by Travis Smith, CIMMS.

Climatological Analysis of the Water Budget and Soil Infiltration Characteristics Throughout the State of Oklahoma – David Cook, SUNY Albany, mentored by J.J. Gourley, NSSL.

Composite RUC Analyses of Weakly-Forced Mesoscale Convective Systems – Jason Hwang, Miami University, mentored by Dave Stensrud and Mike Coniglio, NSSL.

An Analysis of the Accuracy of Wind Measurements Taken on a Mobile Mesonet Vehicle – Sean Waugh, University of Oklahoma, mentored by Dave Rust and Don MacGorman, NSSL.

Evolution of a Tornadic Supercell Thunderstorm. Part I: Preparation of
One-Minute Phased Array Radar Measurements for Analysis – James Kurdzo, Millersville University, mentored by Rodger Brown, NSSL and Pam Heinselman, CIMMS.

An Examination of Simulated Reflectivity Forecasts from a 10-member Storm Scale Ensemble Prediction System – Derek Stratman, Valparaiso University, mentored by David Bright, Storm Prediction Center.

Comparative Lightning Characteristics of a Tornadic and Non-Tornadic Oklahoma Thunderstorm on April 24-25, 2006 – Amanda Sheffield, Purdue University, mentored by Phillip Bothwell and Joe Schaefer, SPC.

]]> http://www.norman.noaa.gov/2008/06/hollings08/feed/ 0 http://www.norman.noaa.gov/2008/05/hwt_2008/ http://www.norman.noaa.gov/2008/05/hwt_2008/#comments Mon, 05 May 2008 19:47:02 +0000 Susan Cobb http://www.norman.noaa.gov/?p=517

Participants in the 2008 Spring Experiment in the Hazardous Weather Testbed

This is the second week of the 2008 Hazardous Weather Testbed (HWT) EFP (Experimental Forecast Program) Spring Experiment held in the NOAA HWT at the National Weather Center in Norman, Okla. Each spring during the climatologically most active severe weather periods, multi-agency collaborative forecasting experiments known as the HWT EFP Spring Experiment have occurred since 2000. A strength of the program is the involvement of scientists and forecasters throughout the meteorological community. Participating in the EFP this week will include visiting forecasters from NOAA/NWS Pendleton OR, NOAA/NWS Amarillo TX, and researchers from NCAR, Boulder CO, Colorado State Univ., North Carolina State Univ., Mitre Corp./FAA, and Environment Canada.

The EFP branch of the HWT is focused on predicting hazardous mesoscale weather events on time scales ranging from a few hours to a week in advance, and on spatial domains ranging from several counties to the CONUS. The EFP embodies the collaborative experiments and activities previously undertaken by the annual SPC and NSSL Spring Experiments during the past seven years.

The HWT allows participating organizations to:
• Refine and optimize emerging operational forecast and warning tools for rapid integration into operations
• Educate forecasters on the scientifically correct use of newly emerging tools and to familiarize them with the latest research related to forecasting and warning operations
• Educate research scientists on the operational needs and constraints that must be met by any new tools (e.g., robustness, timeliness, accuracy, and universality)
• Motivate other collaborative and individual research projects that are directly relevant to forecast and warning improvement

Background: NOAA’s Hazardous Weather Testbed is a joint facility managed by the National Severe Storms Laboratory, the Storm Prediction Center, and the NWS Oklahoma City/Norman Weather Forecast Office within the National Weather Center located in Norman, OK. The HWT facilities include a combined forecast and research area situated between the operations rooms of the SPC and OUN and a development laboratory also located nearby on the second floor.

Significance: Since a primary mission of the NWS is the protection of life and property from hazardous weather phenomena, applied research aimed at improving the prediction of impact weather such as severe thunderstorms and tornadoes is a critical activity at the SPC, NSSL, OUN, and other NWS offices.

More information: http://hwt.nssl.noaa.gov/Spring_2008/

The Isaac M. Cline Award honors individual and team employees for operational excellence in the delivery of products and services in support of the National Weather Service mission.

“Saving lives and property is the central function of the National Weather Service and the Isaac M. Cline Award demonstrates the hard work of Richard to accomplish this goal,” said Brig. Gen. David L. Johnson, USAF (ret.), director of NOAA’s National Weather Service.

Louis W. Uccellini, director of the NOAA/NWS National Centers for Environmental Prediction, will present the award during a ceremony to be held May 18 in Norman.

The award recognizes Thompson’s extensive research to improve severe weather forecasting techniques. He led an effort to develop and organize a large database of the environmental conditions associated with 413 supercell thunderstorms that occurred from 1999 through 2001, then used it to examine the environmental conditions prior to supercell development. Thompson noted the environmental conditions that help to differentiate between storms that produce tornadoes and those that do not.

The results of this study are used routinely by forecasters at the Storm Prediction Center and in local NWS forecast offices to determine when and where tornado watches and warnings should be issued, resulting in fewer false alarms and unneeded tornado watches.

“While severe thunderstorm forecasting remains challenging, thanks to Rich’s efforts, today’s SPC is much better at forecasting tornado potential than it was only a decade ago,” Uccellini said.

In addition, Thompson was instrumental in using the database to develop two parameters that help identify environments where supercells and significant tornadoes are likely to develop. The Supercell Composite Parameter identifies favorable environmental conditions for supercells, and the Significant Tornado Parameter (STP), which highlights favorable conditions for strong and violent tornadoes. These two parameters have aided SPC forecasters in surveying the country quickly to locate potential severe thunderstorm threat areas.

The award is named for the man whose courage and dedication is credited with saving thousands of lives during the Galveston, Texas, hurricane of 1900. Isaac Cline was in charge of the U.S. Weather Bureau office in Galveston when the popular coastal city was struck with the deadliest natural disaster in the nation’s history. The death toll exceeded 8,000, but could have been much higher if not for Cline’s acute understanding of the weather and his early hurricane warnings in an era when meteorology was in its infancy and ship-to-shore communications were non-existent.

The National Weather Service is an office of the National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration, an agency of the U.S. Department of Commerce. NOAA is dedicated to enhancing economic security and national safety through prediction and research of weather and climate-related events and environmental stewardship of our nation’s coastal and marine resources. Through the emerging Global Earth Observation System of Systems (GEOSS), NOAA is working with its federal partners and more than 60 countries to develop a global monitoring network that is as integrated as the planet it observes.

On the Web:
NOAA : http://www.noaa.gov
NOAA’s National Weather Service: http://www.nws.noaa.gov

The $42,000 project will test the use of the Warning Decision Support System-Integrated Information (WDSS-II), a state-of-the-art radar analysis software tool, to stitch together real-time, high-resolution weather radar data from across the country into a digital mosaic. This new mosaic and software display system will add significant value to the data severe weather forecasters use on a daily basis to develop accurate storm predictions for the United States.

WDSS-II was developed by researchers at the NOAA National Severe Storms Laboratory and the Cooperative Institute for Mesoscale Meteorological Studies at the University of Oklahoma.

According to Jason Levit, Storm Prediction Center techniques development meteorologist, “Our forecasters will not only benefit from the imagery displayed using the high-resolution mosaic, the new system also applies advanced problem solving techniques to help find certain structures within hazardous weather that could lead to better predictions of severe storms and tornadoes.”

“This project takes developed and proven technology and creates an innovative system that will improve our national mission by testing the use of high-resolution radar data for national severe storms forecasting,” said Joseph Schaefer, director of the NOAA Storm Prediction Center.

SPC is one of 11 chosen grant recipients from 58 applicants within the Department of Commerce in this year’s Pioneer Fund competition. The program gives Commerce employees an opportunity to develop, propose and implement innovative ideas to improve the way their organizations fulfill their missions to best serve the public.

Commerce’s Pioneer Fund provides investment capital for creative projects that turn a relatively small investment of money into noteworthy, cost-effective improvements in quality, productivity and customer service.

The NOAA Storm Prediction Center issues forecasts and watches for severe thunderstorms and tornadoes over the contiguous United States. The SPC also monitors heavy rain, heavy snow and fire weather events across the U.S., and issues specific national products for those hazards.

NOAA is dedicated to enhancing economic security and national safety through the prediction and research of weather and climate-related events and providing environmental stewardship of our nation’s coastal and marine resources.

On the Web:
NOAA: http://www.noaa.gov
NOAA’s Storm Prediction Center: http://www.spc.noaa.gov

“One tropical storm and five hurricanes affecting areas from Florida to the mid-Atlantic states, as well as several outbreaks in four of the last ten days in May contributed to the year’s total number of 1,717 tornado reports in the U.S.,” said Dan McCarthy, SPC’s warning coordination meteorologist. This tops the previous record of 1,424 tornadoes in 1998, and the total of 1,368 in 2003.

Joe Schaefer, director of NOAA’s Storm Prediction Center said, “Even with the record number of tornadoes, storm related fatalities were limited to 35. This shows that timely watches and warnings combined with our strong partnerships with emergency management and the media to convey that information does save lives.” The reported number of 35 deaths attributed to tornadoes is significantly below the usual yearly average for these storm-related fatalities.

Every year, an average of 1,200 tornadoes kill about 55 Americans, injure 1,500 people and cause more than $400 million in damage. Considered nature’s most violent storms, tornadoes can occur any month of the year with peak activity from the months of March through July.

“In 2004, record tornado reports were largely the result of an active hurricane season during August and September. Preliminary numbers indicate a total of 173 tornadoes reported during August,” McCarthy said. This significantly tops the previous August record of 126 tornadoes set in 1979. Other reports for August include: 120 tornadoes in 1994; 115 in 1992; 112 in 1993; and 108 in 1985.

Preliminary data indicate a total of 247 tornadoes reported in September. This significantly tops the previous September record of 139 tornadoes set in 1967, which was mostly attributed to Hurricane Beulah, which produced tornadoes in Texas and parts of Oklahoma. Other years with high tornadic activity for September include: 104 reports in 1998; 101 reports in 1996; and 84 reports in 2001. The average number of tornadoes in the U.S. during September is 47.

“The number of tornadoes associated with tropical storms and hurricanes was extraordinary and can be partially blamed for the high number of overall tornado reports,” McCarthy said. Tropical Storm Bonnie and five land-falling hurricanes -Charley, Frances, Gaston, Ivan and Jeanne- affected the mid-Atlantic and Southeast states during August and September. Tornadoes frequently occur in the northeast quadrant of northward advancing tropical systems or their remnants.

Hurricane Frances produced the most tornadoes for a tropical system with a preliminarily number of 117 reports. Frances tops Hurricane Beulah, which spawned 115 tornadoes in September 1967. Hurricane Ivan was close with 104 tornado reports, and a total of 16 tornadoes were reported in association with Hurricane Jeanne.

“All in all, the year began slowly and the number of tornadoes was below normal through early May, the heart of tornado season. The weather pattern became more conducive for severe weather activity during the last part of May when 445 tornado were reported,” said McCarthy.

NOAA is dedicated to enhancing economic security and national safety through the prediction and research of weather and climate-related events and providing environmental stewardship of the nation’s coastal and marine resources.

On the Web:
NOAA: http://www.noaa.gov
NOAA’s National Weather Service: http://www.nws.noaa.gov
Storm Prediction Center: http://www.spc.noaa.gov

The Presidential Rank Award is a prestigious award given to a select group of senior federal executives who have provided exceptional service to the American people over an extended period of time. Executives who have demonstrated strength, integrity, industry and commitment to public trust are nominated for the award by the head of their agency. A panel of private citizens evaluate the candidates, selecting only those who through their personal conduct and results-oriented leadership qualify for referral to the president who makes the final designation.

Under Schaefer, the SPC – part of the NOAA National Weather Service (NWS) National Centers for Environmental Prediction (NCEP) – has acquired an international reputation as a center of expertise for the prediction of hazardous, small-scale, mid-latitude weather.

“Throughout his career, Joe has compiled a record of outstanding accomplishments,” said retired Navy Vice Admiral Conrad C. Lautenbacher, Ph.D., undersecretary of commerce for oceans and atmosphere, and NOAA administrator. “This is a fitting recognition of the work he has done and the major innovations he continues to bring to the Storm Prediction Center, NOAA, and the American people.”

As the first director of the SPC, Schaefer was responsible for its start-up from design of facilities to the logistics of the organization’s move from Kansas City in 1997, where it was previously known as the National Severe Storms Forecast Center. Schaefer broadened the scope of the SPC program to make it an all-hazards forecast center. He added forecasts of the small scale aspects of extreme winter weather, excessive rainfall and fire weather to its original suite of tornado and severe thunderstorm forecasts.

Additionally, Schaefer significantly upgraded existing SPC products. The one- and two-day severe thunderstorm forecasts were changed to indicate the probability of specific types of severe weather. A three-day severe thunderstorm forecast was added, to more fully meet the needs of the Department of Homeland Security’s Federal Emergency Management Agency.

Schaefer has been a leader in the effort to incorporate the detailed, specific knowledge that only forecasters at a local office have into tornado and severe thunderstorm watches. All watches are now produced through collaboration between local forecasters and SPC forecasters. Because of these efforts, the National Weather Service now provides a seamless suite of products on tornadoes and severe thunderstorms.

Schaefer earned a bachelor of science degree in meteorology in 1965 and a Ph.D. in meteorology in 1973, both from St. Louis University. He began his career as a meteorologist with the Weather Bureau (forerunner to today’s National Weather Service) office in Evansville, Ind., in 1963, then served at the National Severe Storms Forecast Center (now SPC), the NWS office in Wichita, Kan., and the NWS office in St. Louis, Mo. He was a research meteorologist at the Navy Weather Research Facility in Norfolk, Va., from 1969 to 1971 and held the same position at the National Severe Storms Laboratory in Norman, Okla., from 1971 to 1976. He then became chief of the Techniques Development Unit of the National Severe Storms Forecast Center in Kansas City, serving until 1983 when he was named chief of the Scientific Services Division of the National Weather Service Central Region, also in Kansas City. From 1991 to 1995 he was director of the NWS Training Center in Kansas City, and then was named director of the Storm Prediction Center.

In Feb. 2003, Schaefer received the Reichelderfer Award from the American Meteorological Society (AMS). He has also received the Department of Commerce bronze medal for his warning verification work in 1990 and an AMS editor’s award in 1993. He has published more than three dozen articles in professional literature and has written chapters in four textbooks. He is a member of the National Weather Association, American Meteorological Society, American Geophysical Union, Canadian Meteorological and Oceanographic Society and the Missouri Academy of Sciences.

Schaefer is a past president of the National Weather Association, a fellow of the AMS, a former chair of the AMS Board on Certified Consulting Meteorologists, a former chair of the AMS Severe Local Storms Committee and a past member of the AMS Committee on Fellows. Schaefer is an adjunct full professor at the University of Oklahoma and has taught at St. Louis University, the University of Missouri-Kansas City, and Kansas City (Kan.) Community College.

The NOAA Storm Prediction Center issues forecasts and watches for severe thunderstorms and tornadoes over the contiguous United States. The SPC also monitors heavy rain, heavy snow and fire weather events across the U.S. and issues specific national products for those hazards. SPC meteorologists are on duty 24 hours a day, seven days a week. Part of the National Weather Service’s National Centers for Environmental Prediction, the SPC was established in Washington, D.C. in 1952, moved to Kansas City in 1954 and then Norman in 1997.

NOAA National Weather Service is the primary source of weather data, forecasts and warnings for the United States and its territories. The National Weather Service operates the most advanced weather and flood warning and forecast system in the world.

NOAA is dedicated to enhancing economic security and national safety through the prediction and research of weather and climate-related events and providing environmental stewardship of our nation’s coastal and marine resources.

On the Web:
NOAA: http://www.noaa.gov
NOAA National Weather Service: http://www.weather.gov
NOAA National Centers for Environmental Prediction: http://www.ncep.noaa.gov
NOAA Storm Prediction Center: http://www.spc.noaa.gov

NOAA Weather Radio broadcasts life-saving severe and hazardous weather information directly from the National Weather Service Forecast Office in Norman, Okla., including severe thunderstorm and tornado watches and warnings.

“We believe these weather radios will help our local schools know when severe storms may be headed to their area, so they can take the appropriate precautions,” said Mike Baldwin, NSEA President. “We encourage everyone to have a NOAA weather radio in their home or business. They should be as common as smoke detectors.”

The weather radios are being delivered to seven Norman elementary schools: Adams, Eisenhower, Lincoln, Madison, McKinley, Monroe and Truman. Additional radios will be presented to All Saints Catholic School, Community Christian School and the Washington School District. Richard Smith, warning coordination meteorologist with the National Weather Service Norman Forecast Office, and David Grizzle, new emergency preparedness officer for the City of Norman, will assist with the presentations.

Weather radios come in many sizes, with a variety of functions and costs. Newer weather radios, such as the ones donated to the schools, are equipped with SAME technology that allows it to be customized to alert only for the counties selected. These weather radios can automatically sound an alarm and turn themselves on if a severe weather warning is broadcast.

Most NOAA Weather Radio receivers are either battery-operated portables or AC-powered desktop models with battery backup. Some scanners, amateur radios, CB radios, short wave receivers, and AM/FM radios also are capable of receiving NOAA Weather Radio transmissions. Weather radios can be purchased at many electronics and discount stores, as well as on the Internet.

In addition to having a weather radio, the NOAA National Weather Service makes the following recommendations for severe weather safety:

• Develop a severe weather safety plan for you and your family. Think about what you will do and where you will go to stay safe when storms approach.
• Pay attention to the weather anytime thunderstorms are nearby. Watches and warnings can give you time to prepare and to take shelter.
• Have multiple ways to receive life-saving warnings—a weather radio with a warning alarm and battery back-up should be one of those ways.
• When violent storms threaten, go to your safe place quickly. If no underground shelter is available, go to the lowest floor of a sturdy building. Get as far inside as possible, avoiding windows and doors. Cover up to avoid flying debris.

NSEA members are either employees of the National Severe Storms Laboratory, the Storm Prediction Center or the Cooperative Institute for Mesoscale Meteorological Studies at the University of Oklahoma.

On the Web:
National Severe Storms Laboratory: http://www.nssl.noaa.gov
Storm Prediction Center: http://www.spc.noaa.gov
Cooperative Institute for Mesoscale Meteorological Studies: http://www.cimms.ou.edu
NOAA Weather Radio: http://www.nws.noaa.gov/nwr

This year, fewer tornadoes also means fewer deaths. As of July 24, 11 people have been killed by tornadoes this year. “The 10 year average for deaths by July 24 is 46,” said Dan McCarthy, warning coordination meteorologist for NOAA’s Storm Prediction Center.

“A cold air outbreak in February and March, when tornadoes typically occur in the southeast, delayed the start of tornado season,” McCarthy said. This followed a winter when the position of the jet stream and resulting storm track prohibited tornado development. Drought may also be a factor in the low number of tornadoes this year, he added.

According to the Storm Prediction Center only 11 years since 1950 have seen fewer tornadoes during the same period. On average, about 57 Americans are killed by tornadoes each year, with 1,200 injured. An average of 1,200 tornadoes cause more than $400 million in damages annually. Peak tornado activity occurs during the months of March through early July.

The most destructive and deadly tornado this year occurred in La Plata, Md., on April 28, killing three people. Based on the damage, officials rated it an F4 on the Fujita Damage Scale. Other deadly tornadoes that occurred that day were an F3 in Dongola, Ill., that killed one person and an F2 in Irvington, Ky., that also killed one. Two other April tornadoes each killed one person, an F3 on April 21 in Fairfield, Ill., and an F3 on April 27 in Marble Hill, Mo. On May 5, an F2 tornado in Happy, Texas, killed two people and four days later an F1 in Centralia, Ill., also killed two.

More information about tornado forecasting and research is available online at: http://www.noaa.gov/tornadoes.html.

NOAA’s National Weather Service is the primary source of weather data, forecasts and warnings for the United States and its territories. NOAA’s National Weather Service operates the most advanced weather and flood warning and forecast system in the world, helping to protect lives and property and enhance the national economy. To learn more about NOAA’s National Weather Service, please visit http://www.nws.noaa.gov.